Lee, Charles M. C., Myers, James, Swaminathan, Bhaskaran
Authored On
Interests
Internal/Family Medicine
Endocrinology
Speciality
Internal/Family Medicine
Endocrinology
Book Detail
volume
54
ISSN
00221082
Publication Date
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["Lee, Charles M. C., Myers, James, Swaminathan, Bhaskaran","DOW Jones industrial average, NUMERICAL range, TRADING companies, STOCK price indexes, STOCK transfer, INVESTMENT interest, DEMAND for money, VALUATION of corporations, PRICES of securities, ECONOMIC models, PORTFOLIO management (Investments), VALUATION","English","1999-10-01","Journal of Finance (Wiley-Blackwell)","54"]
Description
We model the time-series relation between price and intrinsic value as a cointegrated system, so that price and value are long-term convergent. In this framework, we compare the performance of alternative estimates of intrinsic value for the Dow 30 stocks. During 1963-1996, traditional market multiples (e.g., B/P, E/P, and D/P ratios) have little predictive power. However, a V/P ratio, where V is based on a residual income valuation model, has statistically reliable predictive power. Further analysis shows time-varying interest rates and analyst forecasts are important to the success of V. Alternative forecast horizons and risk premia are less important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
